With the birth of a new Smash cycle comes the fun of guessing which newcomers will be included. Through weeks upon weeks of careful calculations and intense theorizing I have compiled a list of newcomers that I swear by. This list is absolutely, one-hundred percent accurate and we may as well all just take it for the gospel truth. So without further ado, here’s my predictions for Smash 5 newcomers…

Inkling

Hey, they haven’t technically been confirmed as playable, right? They could be an assist trophy or something, right? This still counts as a newcomer prediction… right?

Honestly they’re only here so that I can have a complete list of the newcomers for this game once I’m proven to be right.

We all knew it was going to happen. It happened. Let’s move on.

Captain Toad

Captain Toad is far and away the most likely Mario newcomer. He’s been appearing in all the big 3D Mario games since Galaxy, and he’s even managed to acquire his own spin-off. What other Mario character has that kind of a track record that isn’t in Smash already? Nobody, that’s who. We’ve even got a Treasure Tracker port confirmed for the 3DS and Switch! And we know that Sakurai loves newcomers that can offer unique movesets, so Captain Toad’s gimmick of not being able to jump could bolster his odds even further. If we get at least one Mario newcomer this time around, you better bet the farm on the treasure tracker.

I say give him Peach’s down special. Toad was always the one known for being good at yanking Turnips anyway.

Waluigi

If we only get one Mario newcomer, then I’d say Waluigi is safely out of the running. However, the possibility of two Mario newcomers cannot be denied; Smash 4 brought us both Rosalina(and Luma) and Bowser Jr., and Mario has risen even further in popularity since then with the release of Odyssey. Not to mention that with each passing Smash we get closer and closer to the bottom of the barrel; at this point it’s hard to think up many more first-party newcomers as recognizable and as conducive to hype. Nintendo seems to acknowledge his popularity and outright bizarreness in the new Mario Tennis, and Sakurai himself has trolled the fanbase with the possibility of Waluigi being playable before, showing he’s well-aware of the character’s popularity; and let’s face it, Waluigi is far and away the most popular choice for a Mario newcomer. I consider him a lock to get in EVENTUALLY; it’s just a question of whether it will be this Smash or the next.

I’m feelin’ it, boys. It’s Waluigi Time!

Impa

Sure, we COULD go with one of the Breath of the Wild champions(and we all know it’d be Mipha if any). We COULD value a character with five minutes of screentime who will never show up again over a character who has made numerous appearances throughout the franchise and is guaranteed to keep appearing… but why would we? Impa is one of the only recurring characters outside of the Triforce Trio, her recent-ish outings in Skyward Sword and Hyrule Warriors give her all the moveset potential she could ever need, and nowadays she’s the most popularly requested Zelda newcomer. My only concern is that Sakurai might see fit to pick a character directly from Breath of the Wild, and if that’s the case, there’s no way he’d go with Impa. She’s fairly irrelevant and her incarnation in that game was… not what fans would want from her in Smash.

Come on, Sakurai, give us our first lance-wielding character in Smash!

Dixie Kong

Fans have been clamoring for more DK reps. Peruse any Smash forum and you’re likely to find people expressing the following sentiment: “I can’t believe Waifu Emblem has six characters and DK only has two! Sakurai bias! There better be a DK newcomer in Smash 5!” And to be honest, they would have a point. It’s a bit odd that one of Nintendo’s most iconic and best-selling franchises has only two characters in Smash while lesser franchises get so many fighters. I expect we’ll finally get a third Kong in Smash. And while K. Rool would inspire far more hype than the comparatively bland choice of Dixie, the latter is a far more relevant character whereas the former seems to have been erased from Kong canon, which is I consider Dixie more likely.

She may not be exciting. She may not have the most fun moveset. But I’ll be damned if she isn’t logical!

Ridley

The “Ridley is too big” crowd no doubt had a field day when Masahiro Sakurai himself gave that exact reason for why Ridley hadn’t been made playable. Call me a fool, but I’m still convinced that Ridley is getting in as a fighter someday. He’s probably the most popularly requested Nintendo character at this point. Sure, Sakurai could give us Sylux or Dark Samus, but that would just be putting a band-aid over a festering wound; there’s only one treatment to deal with the fan demand, and that’s playable Ridley. And it’s not as though Sakurai has never changed his mind; when he said he couldn’t think of a moveset for an Animal Crossing character, nay-sayers took it as the gospel truth that an Animal Crossing rep would never get in Smash; and who turned out to be the very first newcomer revealed for Smash 4?

If Ridley does get in, they better not go with the Other M version. #NotMyRidley

FE Switch Lord

This is happening. A few people like to argue that it won’t happen because FE Switch hasn’t released, but such people are fools. We’ve had FE Lords put in Smash before their game released TWICE now. Expect this.

Obviously I don’t have a picture of the FE Switch Lord. So here’s an image of the FE Smash logo. Enjoy!

Isabaelle

Animal Crossing has skyrocketed in popularity as of late, managing to become one of Nintendo’s bigger franchises, and the as-yet unannounced Animal Crossing title for the Switch is one of the most anticipated upcoming games for the console. It’s hard to imagine that Smash 5 wouldn’t receive a second fighter from this franchise. Now, some might ask the question: “Why Isabelle? What about Tom Nook?” Well, the fact of the matter is that Isabelle has completely overtaken Nook as the mascot for Animal Crossing. Don’t believe me? Look at which character got into Mario Kart 8. Meanwhile, Nook doesn’t even run the town store anymore. I’m absolutely convinced that Isabelle is going to be promoted from assist trophy to playable character in this installment.

Like it or not, this is the new face of Animal Crossing, and she’s totally getting into Smash.

Decidueye

Look, I don’t really play Pokemon, so I’m just going to go with Decidueye since everyone seems convinced that he’s most likely.

Like I said, I’m not a Pokemon fan, so I don’t have much of an opinion on this… thing.

Gen 8 Pokemon

Like with Fire Emblem, there are buffoons who would argue that since the new game hasn’t yet released, we won’t see a newcomer from it. And I have only one thing to say to you people:

Greninja.

And yes, I fully expect two Pokemon newcomers.

Rex and Pyra

At this point, Rex may well be the most likely newcomer for Smash 5. We already knew that Xenoblade is a favorite of Sakurai’s, but he also recently released an article wherein he expounds upon, at length, just how incredible of a game he thinks Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is. Add onto that the potential for an incredibly unique moveset based on the Driver/Blade mechanic and it’s unthinkable that a Xenoblade Chronicles 2 character will get in Smash. I suppose there is some small chance it won’t be Rex and Pyra – Tora and Poppi could get in over them by some stretch of the imagination – but we’ll probably see these two join the fray.

If I had my way it would just be Pyra. Or Pyra would be the lead character and Rex would be the assist. But neither of those things are happening.

Spring Man

Is Spring Man the most boring possible choice for an ARMS character? Maybe. Is he also the most likely to get into Smash just by virtue of the fact that he’s on the game’s boxart? Sadly, yes. I do hope that Sakurai selected the ARMS fighter after the base game roster was shown off and it became apparent that either Twintelle or Min-Min would be the best choice, but I fear that he might have made his selection at a time when Spring Man would seem like the most logical choice. As such, I’m going to go with the safest guess for my prediction and say that Spring Man is going to be the ARMS newcomer.

Well, at least he’s not the WORST character from his game… right?

Labo

This is exactly the sort of “WTF” character that would have a shockingly fun and creative moveset I expect from Sakurai. But it also makes a lot of sense; it’s likely that Labo is going to be a huge thing for Nintendo, may as well give it some representation in Smash.

This image should win over any Labo skeptics!

Diskun

It’s become a sort of Smash tradition to include a “retro rep”: a character who represents the olden days of Nintendo. Melee had Game and Watch, Brawl had R.O.B., and Smash 4 had Duck Hunt… and I’m guessing Smash 5 will have Diskun. I used to think that we’d get Takamaru to fill this slot, though I realized that doesn’t seem like something Sakurai would do: Takamaru would be a fairly obvious choice with a standard moveset; the retro reps up until now have been anything but. Why do I think it would be Diskun? Well, the little guy has was the mascot for the Famicom Disk System, and has made several cameos throughout various Nintendo games since(one of which being a trophy in Melee), the most recent of which being a costume in Super Mario Maker. It’s clear that Nintendo hasn’t forgotten about Diskun, and while I admit that I have no idea what his moveset would look like, most would express similar thoughts towards R.O.B. and Duck Hunt, yet here they are.

I’d be curious as to whether they’d make a 3D model for him or stick to a 2D look like Game and Watch.

Crash Bandicoot

I don’t like Crash. There, I said it. He strikes me as a complete Sonic the Hedgehog knock-off with Sonic’s worst quality(that 90s-era smug attitude) cranked up to an eleven. And even beyond that I think his design is plain hideous. Perhaps it’s just my Nintendo bias talking, but I don’t care for Crash, and I’d rather not see Crash in Smash. But despite my prejudice, Crash remains one of the more iconic video game characters not already in Smash, and with the trilogy coming to the Nintendo Switch, it’s easy to see how Crash could make it in as a third party character. I’d be thrilled if his ugly mug didn’t sully the character selection screen for me, but I can’t help but expect him.

Seriously, though. Is there anybody out there who DOESN’T think Crash is an attempt to leech off of the success of Sonic?

Simon Belmont

I anticipate a Konami rep, though sadly due to the whole Kojima fiasco I don’t expect Snake to return. That leaves us with Bomberman and Simon Belmont as the prime candidates. I suppose on the face of it Bomberman would seem like the most logical choice: his cartoonish design would feel much more at home in Smash and a Bomberman game was even a launch title on the Switch. My main issue with him, though, is that I question how excited people would be for him. You see, now that Nintendo is scraping the bottom of the barrel for their own newcomers, third parties serve to carry a LOT of the hype for a new Smash game(see: Brawl and Smash 4), and I haven’t seen the kind of demand for Bomberman that I have for Simon Belmont, so I have to go with him.

Personal bias may also factor in, because I’d consider maining this guy based purely on his design.